Carbon dioxide emissions from India’s power sector fell by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 — marking only the second drop in nearly 50 years, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief.

What drove the decline

Clean energy surge: India added a record 25.1 GW of non-fossil capacity (solar, wind, hydro, nuclear) in H1 2025, a jump of nearly 69% over the previous record, expected to generate around 50 TWh annually. 

Lower electricity demand: Mild weather and significantly higher rainfall (42% above normal between March and May) reduced air conditioning demand, while slower industrial and power demand growth accounted for 65% of the reduction in fossil-fuel generation. 

Hydropower boost: Higher hydropower output helped offset declines in fossil fuel-based power generation, contributing to the emissions drop.

Broader context and implications

Despite an overall rise in electricity generation (+9 TWh), fossil-fuel based generation fell by 29 TWh during the same period — highlighting just how quickly renewables are changing India’s energy mix.

CREA suggests that if clean energy growth continues and demand remains stable, India’s power-sector CO₂ emissions could peak before 2030 — potentially ahead of its climate targets.

However, emissions from other sectors, such as steel and cement, continued to rise, reflecting ongoing challenges in India’s broader efforts to reduce carbon emissions

What needs to happen next

To make such emissions declines sustainable, analysts warn that India will need to deepen its energy transition — including expanding battery storage, improving grid flexibility, and curbing coal use — while ensuring that clean energy capacity keeps pace with peak electricity demand.
The recent slowdown in industrial demand highlights the fragility of emissions reductions based on external factors like weather and demand shocks, rather than structural changes to India’s energy system.