Nitish-BJP Equation Faces Ultimate Test: Will the CM Be Forced Into Sunset or Stage His Final Battle?

Patna:
As Bihar inches closer to another high-stakes assembly election, the political drama around Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his uneasy partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has once again taken center stage. Within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a quiet but decisive battle for leadership is brewing — one that could determine not only the state’s political course but also the sunset or survival of Nitish Kumar’s long and eventful career.

The question being whispered in Patna’s corridors of power is simple but loaded: Will Nitish continue as Chief Minister if the NDA returns to power? Or will the BJP, emboldened by its expanding base, finally claim the top seat for itself?

The Seat-Sharing Pact: Parity or Power Shift?

For now, both sides insist that all is well. The BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) have agreed on an equal seat-sharing arrangement — 101 seats each — out of Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies. On paper, it signals balance. In practice, it hints at shifting ground.

For years, Nitish’s JD(U) had been the senior partner in the NDA’s Bihar unit. But with the BJP’s organisational machinery deepening its reach, particularly among non-Yadav OBCs, extremely backward castes (EBCs) and women voters, the saffron party is no longer content to play second fiddle. Its 50:50 arrangement with JD(U) is seen less as a compromise and more as a declaration of confidence.

“The BJP’s cadre base, funding network, and campaign apparatus are unmatched in Bihar today,” says a senior Patna-based political analyst. “The real test for Nitish will be post-poll — when the question of who becomes chief minister is raised.”

The Chief Ministership Question: A Battle Deferred

That “who becomes CM” question has become the crux of the NDA narrative. While Nitish Kumar remains the alliance’s face, BJP leaders have carefully avoided giving any categorical assurance about the chief ministership being reserved for him.

Instead, the BJP’s line has been that “the NDA legislature party will decide its leader after the election.” The phrasing is deliberate — and loaded with political meaning.

In past elections, especially in states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has used similar ambiguity to eventually install its own leaders even when allies fronted the campaign. Nitish, a seasoned political survivor, understands the subtext well.

Within the JD(U), there is growing anxiety that if the BJP wins significantly more seats, it could push for its own CM, reducing Nitish to a symbolic figurehead or nudging him to “retire with grace.”

For Nitish, who has already held Bihar’s top job for nearly two decades across shifting alliances, that would mean an unceremonious sunset — something he has always vowed to avoid.

The Social Justice Strategy: Reworking the Caste Equation

To counter the BJP’s rising dominance, Nitish has been banking on his old but effective social coalition — non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, Pasmanda Muslims, and women voters.

Ever since the release of the Bihar caste census data, Nitish has pushed hard on his social justice plank, reviving the slogans of representation and dignity. In his recent public rallies, he has highlighted how his government introduced 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and expanded quotas for backward communities.

The BJP, however, has sought to outflank him on this very front. Through its “backward outreach” strategy, it has been courting EBCs and Pasmandas directly, framing its message around empowerment and welfare rather than caste entitlement. Its local units have focused on schemes such as Ujjwala, PM Awas, and Ayushman Bharat, arguing that “Modi’s governance” benefits all.

This social arithmetic battle has made the Bihar contest less about ideology and more about who can claim ownership over backward empowerment — Nitish or the BJP.

Mahagathbandhan in Trouble: Opposition’s Internal Turmoil

On the other side of the aisle, the Mahagathbandhan — the opposition INDIA bloc’s state avatar — is struggling with its own contradictions.
Tejashwi Yadav, leading the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), remains the bloc’s prime face, but his friction with Congress and smaller allies like CPI(ML) has weakened coordination.

Congress leaders privately admit that they are “in no position to drive the agenda” in Bihar, while the RJD faces an image problem among upper and middle castes. The alliance’s strategy of projecting a “change narrative” — against unemployment, law and order issues, and rural stagnation — has yet to ignite enthusiasm.

“There is anger among the youth, but the opposition has not been able to convert it into a cohesive alternative,” says an analyst at the Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI), Patna.

What If the House Splits? The Scenarios Ahead

With Bihar’s politics known for last-minute realignments, multiple post-poll scenarios are already being discussed.

The Legacy and the Endgame

For Nitish Kumar, this election is more than just another contest. It could be the defining moment of his legacy.

After decades of alliance switches — from BJP to RJD to BJP again — Nitish’s image as a master political survivor is well earned. Yet, that same record now makes both allies and opponents wary of him. Within the BJP, there are murmurs that “Nitish’s utility is nearing its end,” while JD(U) insiders insist their leader remains “the only consensus face capable of holding Bihar together.”

If the BJP emerges dominant, Nitish’s options narrow dramatically: either step aside gracefully, accept a token post, or fight one last battle for relevance. As one senior JD(U) leader put it: “Nitishji has fought too many battles to walk away quietly. If cornered, he will fight back — this could be his final one.”

The Verdict Depends on Numbers

Ultimately, the political fate of Bihar — and Nitish Kumar — will come down to numbers. A decisive NDA victory with BJP dominance could reconfigure Bihar’s leadership. A more balanced outcome may buy Nitish more time. And a fractured verdict could once again make him the state’s kingmaker.

For now, all eyes are on the numbers that the new House will throw up. Those numbers will decide whether Nitish Kumar fades into the sunset — or rises, one last time, to fight for the chair he has occupied longer than anyone in Bihar’s modern political history.