Following the 2021 coup and the escalation of the civil war, Myanmar’s military (the Tatmadaw) has lost control of large areas to ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces. However, recent months have seen a renewed push by the junta to regain ground — especially through heavy use of air strikes and bombing campaigns aimed at recapturing strategic towns and routes. 

Crucially, China’s role has emerged as a significant factor. A report by the independent expert group Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) details how Chinese state-owned arms manufacturer China South Industries Corporation (China South) helped equip Myanmar’s military with aerial bombs and production-line support. 

Meanwhile, China has also engaged diplomatically and strategically along its border with Myanmar, expressing concern about instability, facilitating evacuations, and conducting military drills near the frontier. 

The result is a complex picture: the Myanmar military appears to be leveraging superior air power (bolstered by external arms assistance) to tip the balance against insurgent forces, reclaiming key towns and strategic routes — while the human cost, especially among civilians, has escalated. This dynamic underscores how regional geopolitics and external backing are influencing the course of the conflict inside Myanmar.